Sunday, June 26, 2011

Manic Monday at Wimbledon

Who says this is a young man's game? Granted, "young" in the tennis world means something quite different than it does almost anywhere else, but in any case, this year's Wimbledon round of 16 seems like it contains a glut of players who are just about ready to enter the old folks' home. It makes the appearance of 18-year-old Bernard Tomic all the more striking. What's this whippersnapper doing here? Xavier Malisse and Michael Llodra are even representing the over-30 crowd, that group of players whose golf equivalents would have carried their AARP cards for well over a decade (Marat Safin, aged 31, is now playing on the seniors' tennis tour). Among the other survivors is a cadre of 29-year-olds, Mardy Fish, Lukasz Kubot, Feliciano Lopez, David Ferrer, Mikhail Youzhny, and of course, Roger Federer. For those scoring at home, that means that half of the remaining field is 29 or older (in comparison, only 5 of 16 at the French Open and 4 of 16 at the Australian Open were that old).

All of these things are true, but at the same time, there is a feeling of pointlessness surrounding it. None of these guys, except for Federer, has any shot of winning the tournament. The actual contenders are in their early to mid-20s; for the uninitiated, 22 of the last 25 majors have been won by either Federer or Rafael Nadal, while Novak Djokovic took two and Juan Martin del Potro (Nadal's opponent Monday) won the other. It seems almost inconceivable that anybody else might win it all this year, even poor Andy Murray, who will be crucified in the press if he achieves anything short of holding up the championship trophy next Sunday. But that's thinking big picture. In the short term, a lot of different things could happen. Presumably, everybody left believes, however foolishly, that they can still win the whole thing. It's still early enough in the tournament for somebody to forget his place and pull off an upset that will set the stage for a miraculous run to the title one of the other favorites to win instead. In order, starting at the top of the draw:

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (24) Juan Martin del Potro
I would consider this to be the best of two marquee match-ups on the day. Nadal's credentials speak for themselves: 10 overall major titles, 2-time Wimbledon champ, etc., but the (24) next to del Potro's name is very misleading. In truth, he is the fifth best player in the world, but he is still working his way back up the rankings after missing all of 2010 with a wrist injury. Del Potro steamrolled Nadal 2, 2, and 2 on his way to the 2009 U.S. Open title, but Nadal leads the overall head-to-head 6-3 and won their only grass court match.

This is a very dangerous match for Rafa, but I expect he'll pull it out. Nadal in 5.

(10) Mardy Fish vs. (6) Tomas Berdych
It's a borderline miracle that Mardy made it this far, but all good things have to come to an end. Berdych made the final here at Wimbledon last year, and I just don't believe Fish has the firepower to end his run this time around. At least he got an American into the second week for a change.

Berdych in 3.

(4) Andy Murray vs. (17) Richard Gasquet
This is the second best match-up among the round of 16 contests. It's intriguing on a few different levels. First of all, there's the inevitable circus that surrounds all of Murray's matches at SW19. Second, they both have the potential to turn into total headcases on the court (and off the court, in Gasquet's case). Finally, they're both supremely talented tennis players. Murray has come close but never gotten over the hump. Gasquet possesses top 5 talent but is one of the few psychologically frail players you'll see on the men's tour. Like Nadal, Murray has a tremendously dangerous match, especially considering that he's guaranteed to get an unseeded player in the quarters (either Kubot or Lopez), meaning he'll be an overwhelming favorite to reach the semis. In other words, the pressure will be suffocating.

Still, I feel like Murray will prevail (or do I just hope it?). Murray in 4.

Lukasz Kubot vs. Feliciano Lopez
What are these guys doing here? Feliciano Lopez has spent more time modeling than playing tennis, and Kubot... well, I don't really know what he does. Lopez upset Roddick, and though he doesn't have the game to knock off an elite player, he has more than enough to defeat Kubot.

Following the principle of "if I don't know what you look like, you can't be in the Wimbledon quarters," Lopez wins in 3.

(7) David Ferrer vs. (12) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
This has the potential to be an entertaining match, even though I don't consider either to be top-tier talent. Ferrer is a tremendously dogged competitor who makes up for more or less average strokes by sheer force of will, and Tsonga, the former Australian Open finalist, is a powerful but inconsistent baseliner. They are playing for the right to be Federer's sacrificial lamb in the quarterfinals.

Tough to call, but I think Tsonga takes it in 5.

(3) Roger Federer vs. (18) Mikhail Youzhny
Ok, so Youzhny is no jabroni. He's a solid veteran who's stayed around his current ranking for many years now, made some nice runs in majors (even beat Nadal once!), etc., etc. But let's be clear. Roger Federer has won this tournament six times and hasn't lost before the quarterfinals of any major since the Harding administration. Fed might have his first hiccup of the tournament, but there's no possible way he loses.

Federer in 4 (but probably 3).

Bernard Tomic vs. Xavier Malisse
Again, another match pitting two unseeded players against one another, but the contrast between these two is striking. Tomic is a teenage phenom (or so the Aussies say) who is currently around #160 in the world but will likely see that ranking rise at a rapid rate in the near future. X-Man is a journeyman Belgian who has been playing professionally literally since the time I began watching tennis (in 1999). The best I can tell, he's always been #40 in the world. He made a semifinal run at Wimbledon a few years back but has otherwise never been past the 4th round of a major. This is a match I can see going either way. What wins out: great talent and no experience or mediocre talent and tons of experience? I'll take the young guy this time around.

Tomic wins, barely, in 5. Then he gets eviscerated by Djokovic in the next round.

(2) Novak Djokovic vs. (19) Michael Llodra
Novak Djokovic is good. He's really, really good. Michael Llodra is old. And he serves and volleys (in 2011!). I'm happy for him that he made it this far, but Ward, Mello, and Lu isn't exactly a murderer's row of guys to get through to make it into the 4th round. The Djoker got his minor roadblock out of the way when he dropped a set to Marcos Baghdatis in his previous match, so it should be smooth sailing until the Federer match-up in the semis.

Djokovic in an easy 3 sets.

*****